加拿大紐約聯邦儲備銀行4至12個月期公債購買計劃

加拿大BoC商業前景調查

美國6個月票據拍賣

美國3個月票據拍賣

Cocoa futures rose toward $3,400 per tonne, but remained close to the lowest since August 2023, as traders continued to weigh signs of weak global demand against prospects of ample supply. Industry data showed that cocoa grindings in top consumer Europe fell almost 8% and dropped nearly 4% in North America, both exceeding market estimates. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence reported chocolate candy sales fell about 5% year-on-year during the Easter holiday, a peak seasonal period for consumption. On the supply side, adequate rainfall across key West African growing regions has raised the prospect of another global surplus in 2026/27. Latest data showed ICE-monitored certified inventories at US ports fell by 5,511 bags to 2,618,981, though levels remain high by historical standards, indicating comfortable supply conditions. However, renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz added concerns over logistics and transportation costs.

Cocoa Futures Remain Near 2023-Lows

US stock inched lower on Monday, pausing the surge from last week that slingshot indices to record highs amid renewed doubts of peace prospects in the Middle East and threats to its energy supply. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 were slightly down. Iranian officials reversed Friday's signal that they would allow all vessels to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would start the restoration of global energy flows and pave the way for peace with the US. The conflict was further escalated by US forces targeting an Iranian container ship, jeopardizing success for negotiators. Heavyweight tech companies were sharply lower, setting the pace for riskier assets on speculative technologies. Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and Oracle fell around 1%, while Tesla inched higher ahead of its earnings event this week, the first among Magnificent 7 companies. Conversely, Intel dropped over 1% ahead of its call.

US Stocks Inch Down on Monday

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.37 per USD in April, the strongest in one month, amid support from high oil prices and the outlook of a hawkish Bank of Canada. Despite momentary signals of de-escalation between the US and Iran, energy exports from the Persian Gulf remained targeted by Iranian forces and the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship, effectively halting tanker flows and trade in the Hormuz chokepoint. The surge in energy prices increased the inflows of foreign exchange into the Canadian financial system as Canada exports a large volume of energy, supporting the loonie. In turn, the resulting upswing in inflation drove the BoC to signal it will combat risks of higher energy prices resulting in entrenched inflation, also supporting the currency. The developments drove the Canadian dollar to outperform other G10 currencies since March as the global economy increased dollar positions due to its safe-haven status.

Canadian Dollar Holds at 1-Month High

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell on Monday as fears of an unraveling US Iran ceasefire rattled markets while markets awaited the Canadian CPI. The US seized an Iranian vessel and Tehran vowed retaliation, while Iran lifted and then reimposed its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also ruled out a second round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires on April 21st. Oil prices surged on renewed shipping disruptions, reigniting stagflation fears, lifting bond yields, and pressuring financials and the broader index. Canada's annual inflation rate increased 2.4% in March, up from an increase of 1.8% in February. Driving faster price growth in headline inflation were higher prices for energy, especially gasoline, due to the conflict in the Middle East. Also, gold retreated, weighing on mining stocks. Energy producers, however, are set to rebound on the oil spike.

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