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Futures tracking US equities inched down on Thursday, paring the shy increase from last session following the Treasury's move to supress longer-term yields. Contracts for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 fell up to 0.5%. Treasury yields rose across the curve to reflect concerns that the Treasury's efforts to prop up notes and bonds can worsen an already inflationary backdrop with ample dollar liquidity. Borrowing costs were also lifted by higher fuel and gas prices after President Trump stated the US entered "economic war" against Iran, prolonging blockades of tankers crossing the Persian Gulf. Banks held their losses as short-term Treasury securities fell further. On top of that, AI hyperscalers were mostly lower premarket following the tepid financial results from OpenAI, which failed to grow at the same pace of rival Anthropic. Meanwhile, Walmart sank over 6% after its second-quarter sales fell short of expectations.

US Futures Decline

Aluminum futures in the UK fell to $3,200 per tonne from the eight-week high of $3,360 on August 11th, as higher supply from China offset the disruption from the war in the Middle East. Exports of aluminum from China, the world's top producer, surged by 18.7% in the year to July. The country has stepped up exports as muted demand allowed producers to ship metal despite Beijing's output cap of 45 million tons, easing shortages from the Middle East due to the war in Iran. The Alunorte plant in Brazil, the world's largest alumina plant outside of China, was forced to cut operations to half capacity amid the lack of natural gas from its supplier. This added to detriment to its client Norsk Hydro, which already declared two force majeures on aluminum sales after its joint Qatari venture Qatalum plant was forced to shut off production on natural gas shortages. LNG supply from the Middle East, essential for aluminum refining, has been scarce due to tanker blockades from the US and Iran.

Aluminum Eases from 8-Week High

India’s BSE Sensex closed about 0.8% firmer at 77,537.7 on Thursday, ending a four-day losing streak, led by financials and IT stocks. Investors found some relief from easing pressure on global bond yields following US Treasury's surprise intervention, despite elevated oil prices and geopolitcal uncertainty. Meanwhile, foreign inflows increased for a second day on Wednesday. Most listed companies advanced, led by gains in Eternal (2.3%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (1.7%), ITC (1.6%), Bajaj Finance (1.5%), Axis Bank (1.5%), UltraTech Cement (1.2%) and Infosys (1.2%). Tata Steel (-0.4%), IndiGo (-0.2%) and HCL Tech (-0.2%) bucked the trend as the only decliners.

Sensex Snaps 4-Day Losing Run

The Swiss franc strengthened to around $0.798, its highest level in two months, amid shifting foreign exchange dynamics. The US Treasury announced plans to increase its bond buyback operations to help contain borrowing costs, which had risen to multi-month highs, weighing on demand for the US dollar and supporting the franc. Meanwhile, a potential shift in short positions from the yen toward the Swiss franc could provide an offsetting pressure, as traders move short positions in the yen into other relatively weaker safe-haven currencies amid recent US-Japanese efforts to strengthen the yen. The SNB kept its policy rate at 0% and is expected to remain unchanged throughout 2027, while reiterating its preference for foreign exchange intervention to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Most economists expect the first rate hike in early 2028, while markets are pricing in one as early as March 2027, potentially making the currency more attractive as a funding currency for carry trades.

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