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Brent crude oil futures added over 4% to above $70 per barrel on Wednesday, rebounding from a 1.9% decline in the previous session as tightening supply and firmer Asian demand squeezed the physical market despite mixed signals on future output. The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency showed winter outages and export constraints cutting global supply by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in January. At the same time, stronger intake from China and India absorbed additional barrels, narrowing available export flows. Renewed geopolitical friction in the Middle East, including disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, added a tangible premium to prices by threatening a key transit route for seaborne crude. On the other hand, OPEC+ is considering a gradual output increase from April, while tentative steps toward restoring Venezuelan exports are unlikely to deliver immediate volumes due to licensing and logistical constraints.

Brent Rises Further

WTI crude futures surged more than 4% to above $65 per barrel, testing monthly highs as tightening supply and firmer Asian demand squeezed the physical market despite mixed signals on future output. The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency showed winter outages and export constraints cutting global supply by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in January. At the same time, stronger intake from China and India absorbed additional barrels, narrowing available export flows. Renewed geopolitical friction in the Middle East, including disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, added a tangible premium to prices by threatening a key transit route for seaborne crude. On the other hand, OPEC+ is considering a gradual output increase from April, while tentative steps toward restoring Venezuelan exports are unlikely to deliver immediate volumes due to licensing and logistical constraints.

Crude Oil Tests Monthly Highs

Silver rose above $77.2 per ounce, extending gains as investors digested the January FOMC minutes and maintained expectations for rate cuts later this year. The minutes revealed a divide within the Federal Reserve, with several participants indicating cuts would be appropriate if disinflation continues, while others favoured holding rates steady for longer and even flagged the possibility of further tightening if inflation proves persistent. Although the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, the mixed tone kept markets pricing a data dependent path that leaves room for easing. That uncertainty supported non yielding assets such as silver, even as firmer Treasury yields and improved risk sentiment limited the upside.

Silver Extends Momentum

The dollar index firmed to above the 97.5 mark on Wednesday, extending the traction since touching a near four-year low of 96 in late February as global markets reconsidered their aversion to the greenback and trimmed the magnitude of rate cuts expected by the Federal Reserve this year. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting indicated that many members believe that the disinflation process may take longer than previously expected, while few members went as far as noting that rate hikes could be necessary to prevent the inflation rate from stabilizing above the 2% target. The delayed January CPI reflected a 2.4% annual increase, less than expected, but remained firmly above target. Meanwhile, the aversion to dollar-denominated assets eased from their peak in late January amid signs of improved relations between the US and the EU and the nomination of the Fed Chairmanship to Kevin Warsh, a balance sheet hawk. The DXY was also supported by a softer sterling, yen, and Canadian dollar.

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