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The euro weakened to around $1.16 on Friday as the dollar remained supported ahead of key US CPI data due later today, while investors continued to assess the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision and the outlook for further rate hikes. The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, warning that inflation is likely to remain well above its 2% target for an extended period. ECB President Christine Lagarde described the decision as a “no-brainer” and cautioned that the return of inflation to target, currently projected for the end of 2027, could be delayed further. The inflation outlook has deteriorated so sharply that further monetary tightening is now considered increasingly likely, according to sources familiar with the discussions, with another rate hike potentially coming as soon as October. Money markets are pricing in three additional ECB rate increases by March next year, followed by a fourth hike by June.

Euro Slips as Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of US CPI

Coal prices rose above $145 a ton, hovering near a three-month high, as the International Energy Agency warned that global consumption is set to reach a record this year. The IEA expects demand to increase 1.2% to 8.94 billion tons in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast for a decline. Higher natural gas prices, driven partly by uncertainty over LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, are encouraging power generators to switch from gas to coal. This trend has been evident across major markets including China, South Korea, Japan and Europe. Strong El Niño conditions are also boosting electricity demand for cooling while reducing hydropower generation in countries such as India and Vietnam. Although expanding wind and solar capacity is limiting the growth of fossil fuels, rising global electricity demand continues to support coal consumption. The IEA warned that if LNG flows through Hormuz remain disrupted, global coal demand could reach another record in 2027.

Coal Hovers at 3-Month High

Russian Urals crude rose above $100 a barrel, its highest level since May, while Brent traded above $105 as escalating fighting involving Yemen-based Houthi militants and Saudi-backed forces heightened concerns over further Middle East supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency again lowered its outlook for Russian oil production, citing continued Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure and refineries. Russian crude output fell by 200,000 barrels a day in August to 8.36 million bpd, down sharply from its January peak of 9.3 million bpd. The agency cut its 2026 production forecast by 125,000 bpd to 8.7 million bpd and expects 2027 output to average 8.6 million bpd. Russia’s refining sector is also under growing pressure, with sanctions restricting access to replacement equipment and repeated drone attacks damaging key processing units. The IEA warned that repairs, colder weather and continued strikes could further weaken the country’s refining capacity.

Urals Oil Rise to 4-Month High

Eurozone government bond yields continued to rise, with global debt markets heading for their worst weekly selloff since the start of the Iran war as surging energy prices fuel inflation concerns. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed above 3.5%, its highest since August 2009, while Italian yields reached their highest since late 2023 and French yields hit 18-year highs. The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps on Thursday, warning that inflation could remain well above its 2% target for an extended period. President Christine Lagarde called the hike a “no-brainer” and said the return to target, currently expected by the end of 2027, could be delayed further. The inflation outlook has deteriorated so sharply that further monetary tightening is now considered increasingly likely, according to sources familiar with the discussions, with another rate hike potentially coming as soon as October. Markets are now pricing three more ECB hikes by March, followed by another by June.

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