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Eurozone consumer price inflation held at 3.2% in May 2026, the highest since September 2023 and well above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target. Energy costs led the surge, rising 10.8%, the sharpest increase since February 2023, due to Middle East conflict-related supply constraints. Services inflation accelerated to 3.5% (from 3.0% in April), while non-energy industrial goods prices rose to 0.9% (from 0.8%). Food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation eased to 1.9% (from 2.4%). The core rate, excluding energy and food, climbed to 2.6% from 2.2%, signaling broadening price pressures. Among major economies, inflation rose in Spain (3.6% vs. 3.5%), the Netherlands (3.4% vs. 2.5%), Italy (3.2% vs. 2.8%), and France (2.8% vs. 2.5%), but slowed in Germany (2.7% vs. 2.9%).

Eurozone Inflation Confirmed at 2-1/2-Year High

Wheat futures climbed to $6.0 per bushel, recovering from a two-month low hit on June 15, as investors tracked Northern Hemisphere harvesting and awaited US planting data due later this month. While crude oil’s three-month lows, following the outline deal to end the US-Israeli war on Iran, have pressured grain markets, traders are assessing whether the price drop could boost demand from importers. Weather conditions have also played a role, with widespread rain and warm temperatures in the central US benefiting crops and reinforcing expectations of ample global supply. The USDA reported that 55% of the nation’s spring wheat is in good-to-excellent condition, up 3 percentage points from last week but below the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, drought-stressed winter wheat ratings, though near historic lows, saw a slight weekly improvement, with harvest progress advancing faster than anticipated.

Wheat Futures Rebound From Two-Month Lows

Russian Urals crude fell to below $65 per barrel, the lowest in over three months, tracking international benchmark prices as markets priced in expectations that a US-Iran deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and unleash additional supply. Brent and WTI crude prices dropped as traders anticipated the return of Iranian exports and easing pressure on global inventories. The possible interim agreement, expected to allow Tehran to resume oil sales, has already prompted tanker repositioning ahead of a gradual reopening of the strategic waterway. Analysts expect flows to recover slowly due to security concerns and operational limits. At the same time, Russia is shipping near-record crude volumes as Ukrainian strikes on refineries push more barrels into export markets. Russian shipments averaged 3.83 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 14, the highest pace this year.

Urals Oil Falls to Over 3-Month Low

The euro held steady at $1.16 as investors awaited details of the US-Iran peace agreement and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Global sentiment improved on a sharp drop in oil prices, with markets on edge ahead of Friday’s signing of the US-Iran deal. The agreement follows a preliminary accord to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz after nearly four months of war. Money markets have scaled back bets on ECB tightening, now pricing in less than 30 basis points of hikes this year, equivalent to just one increase. ECB policymaker Gediminas Šimkus reiterated on Wednesday that upside inflation risks still justify further tightening, expecting at least one more hike to keep inflation expectations in check.
Later today, attention will shift to the Fed’s policy decision, with focus on updated FOMC projections and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s commentary on the interest rate outlook.

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