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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed optimism that Japan is on track to meet the central bank’s 2% inflation target, supported by strong consumption and capital spending. The IMF stated that after decades of near-zero inflation, Japan’s economy is showing signs of reaching a new equilibrium, with growth expected at 0.5% and inflation at 2%. However, it noted that risks to growth are tilted to the downside, with concerns over global slowdown and weaker domestic consumption. Japan’s headline inflation was 3.7% in February, driven by high food costs, which have impacted households. The fund expects inflation to gradually ease, helping it align with the BoJ’s target. The IMF also advised the board to consider gradually withdrawing monetary support if the economy progresses as expected. The IMF forecasts the economy to grow 1.2% in 2025, with inflation slowing to 2.4%. The BoJ has raised interest rates to 0.5%, signaling confidence in Japan’s progress over its inflation goal.

IMF Sees Japan on Track to Achieve 2% Inflation Target

Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto said on Thursday that all options remain open in response to President Trump’s newly announced tariffs. He called the decision “extremely regrettable” and reiterated Japan’s request for an exemption during a meeting with U.S. officials. Muto emphasized the need for a careful yet decisive response and announced a task force to assess the impact of the 24% tariff on Japanese goods. A previously planned 25% tariff on car imports will take effect as scheduled, dealing a significant blow to Japan’s auto industry. Tokyo also expressed “serious concerns” about the tariffs’ compliance with World Trade Organization rules.

Japan Keeps All Options Open in Response to Trump’s Tariffs

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.29%, its lowest level in a month, as investors sought safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled massive increases in tariffs, deepening a global trade war that could hurt economic growth. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady on Tuesday but took a slight dovish turn by removing its previous reference to being cautious on further rate cuts. The central bank acknowledged that core inflation was cooling in line with expectations, but it needed to be confident the trend would continue. Currently, markets imply around a 70% chance of a 25bps rate cut in May and projects a relatively shallow easing cycle to 3.35% by year-end. In economic news, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed significantly in February as exports declined while imports increased, signaling potential headwinds for the external sector.

Australia 10-Year Bond Yield Drops on Haven Demand

Equities in Singapore dropped 18 points, or 0.4%, to an over one-week low of 3,937 in early trade on Thursday, hitting the lowest level in more than a week, tracking a plunge in U.S. futures after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement. Traders focused their attention on the 10% baseline tariff, which will go into effect on April 5, including for Singapore. As the country imposes no tariffs on U.S. products under the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, it is only subject to the baseline 10% rate. However, fresh data from China capped the fall, after a private survey showed that the services sector on the mainland grew the most in three months, following the manufacturing sector, which expanded at the fastest pace in four months. The STI fell for the fourth straight session, weighed down by tech services, energy, minerals, and finance, with notable losses from UOB (-1.5%), Hongkong Land Holdings (-1.5%), OCBC (-0.6%), SembCorp Industries (-0.6%), and DBS (-0.4%).

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