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Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed toward 2.65%, reaching its highest level since May 23, as trade tensions eased following news that the US proposed a deal to the EU maintaining a 10% baseline tariff, with exemptions for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits. However, Washington gave no indication it would extend exemptions to politically sensitive industries like cars, steel, aluminum, or pharmaceuticals, as requested by the EU. The bloc is aiming to finalize a preliminary agreement this week to lock in the 10% tariff beyond the August 1 deadline, while negotiations for a permanent deal continue. On the economic front, Germany’s exports and imports fell more than expected in May, though industrial output surprised to the upside. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned US tariffs may hit Germany hardest in 2025–2026 but expects a recovery from 2026, supported by government spending and reforms to the debt brake, which could boost growth by 0.75 percentage points by 2027.

German Bund Yields Climb as Trade Tensions Ease

Austria posted a trade deficit of EUR 0.45 billion in April 2025, compared to a surplus of EUR 0.13 billion in the same month a year ago, as imports rose while exports fell. Imports rose 1.9% year-on-year to EUR 16.45 billion, driven primarily by a 15.1% increase in chemical products, which more than offset a 16.5% slump in fuels and energy. Imports grew for non-EU countries (+8.0%), but declined for EU countries (-1.0%). Meanwhile, exports fell by 1.4% to EUR 16.00 billion, mainly due to lower shipments of chemical products (-12.1%), followed by processed goods (-3.1%). Exports to both non-EU countries (-1.6%) and non-EU countries (-1.4%) decreased.

Austria Trade Balance Swings to Deficit in April

While Australia’s inflation has remained within target for two consecutive quarters, risks persist due to elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity, which could push inflation above forecasts, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock said in a press briefing after an interest rate decision today.  She stressed the need for more data—including June quarter CPI, labor market updates, and global developments—before taking further action. The board was united in direction but split on timing, with six members voting to hold and three favoring a rate cut, citing softer data and global risks. Bullock said fears of a severe global downturn tied to trade tensions have eased, but the international backdrop remains fragile, especially after fresh tariff escalations between the U.S. and China. Still, she emphasized that Australia’s closer ties to China offer some insulation from U.S.-led shocks. The RBA remains cautious, committed to its inflation and employment goals amid global uncertainty.

Inflation Risks Prevail in Australia: RBA Governor Bullock

The CAC 40 index fell 0.2% to around 7,710 on Tuesday, pulling back gains from the previous session as investors turned cautious amid ongoing global trade developments. The US has proposed a baseline 10% tariff on all EU goods, with limited exceptions for sectors like aircraft and spirits, but has not committed to exempting sensitive industries, despite EU requests, according to Politico. Meanwhile, President Trump began issuing formal tariff notifications on Monday, targeting 14 countries, with a revised trade deal deadline pushed to August 1, though he signaled potential flexibility. EU sources said the bloc has not received a formal tariff notice and is seeking exemptions from the proposed baseline levy. On the data front, France’s trade deficit widened to €7.8 billion in May from a downwardly revised €7.7 billion in April, marking the largest gap in eight months. On the corporate side, losses were led by Hermes (-1.1%), LVMH (-0.4%), and L’Oréal (-1%).

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